🌎 Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Posts Record Monthly Close, but Euro Steals the Show

Bitcoin just closed a record month, edging past its previous high and cementing momentum into mid‑2025. But a surprising shift in focus has emerged: the euro is now drawing the spotlight as currency markets react to central bank pivots and regional growth dynamics.

📈 Bitcoin Ends Month on Top

• New monthly record: Bitcoin ended June near $108,500, its highest month-end close ever, surpassing even daily records from earlier in the month.
• Bullish backing: Investors poured roughly $4 billion into spot bitcoin ETFs during May–June, pushing total assets above $130 billion.
• Volatility drop: Implied volatility remains near two‑year lows (IV Rank ~2.3, DVOL ~40), reflecting market calm—even as large positions accumulate at strikes like $110k and $120k.

💶 Euro Emerges as a Market Star

• Euro rebound: The euro rallied over 2% against a heavier U.S. dollar, climbing above $1.18. This marked recovery was driven by ECB’s inflation alignment, slowing U.S. rate cuts, and a softer dollar.
• Cross‑market impact: A stronger euro is affecting euro‑denominated crypto assets, shining a fresh focus on currency strategy and risk balance.

⚖️ Macro Trends at Play

• Interest rate divergence: The Fed’s pause and ECB’s hawkish tone have tilted global yield expectations in the eurozone’s favour—fueling euro strength and weighing slightly on dollar‑pegged assets including bitcoin.
• Yield market interplay: With U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields ~4.6%, yields elsewhere remain lower—holding bitcoin steady for now, but limiting further upside without fresh catalysts.

🔍 What to Watch Next

1. July volatility: With June’s peak behind us, traders are watching for a summer breakout—supported by ETF inflows or new macro events.
2. ECB vs Fed tone: Any reopening of the Fed rate-cut debate or shift in ECB policy could tip currency flows and crypto sentiment.
3. Euro‑crypto dynamics: Strength in the euro may attract European crypto investment or generate arbitrage between regions.
4. Derivatives focused: Watch options expiries, especially around $110k–$120k, for hints of institutional conviction or caution.

📝 Summary

Bitcoin’s record monthly close is a clear signal of sustained institutional appetite, even as market calm dominates volatility metrics. But a revitalized euro is reshaping the macro backdrop, forcing crypto investors to pay attention to currency flows and central bank divergence. With both fiat and digital assets in play, the second half of 2025 could define how these narratives converge.