📊 147,000 June jobs US economy

Headline
June job numbers surprise to the upside—Markets scale back rate‑cut bets, Fed likely to wait

Lead Paragraph
June 2025 proved stronger than anticipated for U.S. hiring, with employers adding 147,000 jobs to payrolls. The unemployment rate slid to 4.1 %, reflecting continued resilience—but slower private‑sector hiring and lukewarm wage data signal caution as markets recalibrate rate‑cut timelines.

🧩 Key Highlights

Payrolls vs. forecast: Non‑farm job growth reached 147,000 in June, topping projections of ~110,000 and slightly above May’s revised 144,000.
Unemployment nuance: The drop from 4.2 % to 4.1 % notably reflects a shrinking labor force, not solely new jobs .
Sector breakdown: Gains were concentrated in healthcare, education, and government; private business hiring was sluggish .

📊 Market Response

Bond yields spike: Two‑year Treasury yield jumped ~12 bps to 3.87 %, with the 10‑year ticking higher.
Dollar strength: The rebound in yields buoyed the U.S. dollar across major currencies.
Rate cut timeline: Investors slashed odds of a July Fed cut from 25 % to near zero, with attention turning to September ⏤ December.

🧠 From the Experts

Jeffrey Roach, LPL: Continued payroll growth lets the Fed “sit in ‘wait and see’ mode” .
Brian Jacobsen, Annex Wealth: “Large increase in discouraged workers…” shows job‑market disconnect that could weigh on future cuts.
David Laut, Abound Financial: Labor‑market resilience means rate cuts may wait until Q4 .

🔮 Outlook & Strategy

Fed policy: No July cuts; September remains in play, depending on inflation and private hiring data.
Watch list: Monthly payroll and participation reports, CPI/PCE inflation metrics, and evolving trade/tariff developments.
Investor stance: Expect some rotation into rate-sensitive assets (utilities, bonds) if the Fed signals a shift, but brace for volatility ahead of upcoming data.

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